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The Atlanto-Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record
Nagy, Melinda; Petrovay, Kristóf; Erdélyi, Robert
AA(Department of Astronomy, Institute for Geography and Earth Sciences, Eötvös University), AB(Department of Astronomy, Institute for Geography and Earth Sciences, Eötvös University; Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Center, University of Sheffield), AC(Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Center, University of Sheffield; Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO), Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
Climate Dynamics, Volume 48, Issue 5-6, pp. 1883-1891 (ClDy Homepage)
Publication Date:
Climate change, Linear multiregression, AMO
Abstract Copyright:
(c) 2017: The Author(s)
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Results from a multiregression analysis of the global and sea surface temperature anomalies for the period 1950-2011 are presented where among the independent variables multidecade oscillation signals over various oceanic areas are included. These indices are defined in analogy with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Unexpectedly we find that a strong multidecade oscillation signal echoing the AMO is also present in the Western and Northwestern Pacific region. The results indicate that naturally induced climate variations seem to be dominated by two internal variability modes of the ocean-atmosphere system: AMO and El Niño Southern Oscillation, with a marked geographical dichotomy in their respective areas of dominance. As the AMO index is directly derived from SST data the finding that the AMO signal is present on a large fraction of the global oceanic surface casts doubt on its use as an independent explanatory variable in regression analyses of the global surface temperature anomalies.
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Database: Astronomy
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