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Title:
Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the North East Atlantic due to seismic sources, implications for NEAMTWS
Authors:
Omira, R.; Baptista, M.; Matias, L. M.; Miranda, J. M.; Carrilho, F.
Affiliation:
AA(IPMA, Lisboa, Portugal; ), AB(IDL-UL, Lisbon, Portugal; ), AC(IDL-UL, Lisbon, Portugal; ), AD(IPMA, Lisboa, Portugal; ), AE(IPMA, Lisboa, Portugal; )
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, abstract id. NH41B-1710
Publication Date:
12/2013
Origin:
AGU
Keywords:
4328 NATURAL HAZARDS Risk
Bibliographic Code:
2013AGUFMNH41B1710O

Abstract

Recently, several studies on tsunami hazard assessment for the North East Atlantic coasts have been published. These studies use deterministic approach based upon the most credible earthquake scenario and/or the worst case scenario to derive tsunami coastal hazard in terms of wave elevation and inundation maps. In this work, we present the first thorough study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment due to earthquake sources for the North East Atlantic area. We consider three main seismogenic areas: the Gulf of Cadiz, the Gloria Fault and the Caribbean arc. For each seismogenic zone we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, starting from Mw7.5 to Mw9.0, using the Bayesian method that incorporates seismic information from historical catalog and instrumental periods. A numerical code, solving the linear shallow water equations is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights along the entire NE Atlantic coast and at the forecast points of the NEAMTWS. To establish, for multiple sources, the joint probability that wave height exceeds a particular value for a given time period, we consider that the sources are independent (like in the Poison distribution). This process allows calculating the time-independent probability that wave height, simulated by numerical code, will be exceeded due to the occurrence of a tsunami source with a known average rate, derived from sources' recurrence assessment, during a period of time. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100, 500 and 1000 years, and hazard curves for selected forecast points of the NEAMTWS countries. The level of hazard varies along the coast being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. The results show that the probability of a tsunami wave exceeding 1 m in the next 500 years reaches 100% in some coasts of the Cadiz Gulf. This probability becomes very low (about 5%) along the northern Atlantic coasts of France, coasts of United Kingdom, and Ireland. This work was supported by the Projects: TRIDEC-FP7, Ref. 258723; Tagus Delta-PTDC/MAR/113888/2009, Avaliação do Risco Sísmico e de Tsunami no Concelho de Cascais (IDL-UL); and GTIMS tender no. JRC/IPR/2013/G.2/13/NC.
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