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Title:
The Predictive Power of Ohl's Precursor Method
Authors:
Du, Z. L.; Li, R.; Wang, H. N.
Affiliation:
AA(Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China ), AB(Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing 101149, China), AC(Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012, China )
Publication:
The Astronomical Journal, Volume 138, Issue 6, pp. 1998-2001 (2009). (AJ Homepage)
Publication Date:
12/2009
Origin:
IOP
AJ Keywords:
Sun: activity, Sun: general
DOI:
10.1088/0004-6256/138/6/1998
Bibliographic Code:
2009AJ....138.1998D

Abstract

Using linear regression techniques and correlation analysis, the predictive power of Ohl's method is shown to satisfy one of the following relationships. Either a successful prediction of cycle amplitude can be obtained if the correlation between the minimum aa geomagnetic index in the declining phase of a solar cycle and the sunspot maximum of the succeeding cycle becomes stronger, or the prediction error exceeds the expected prediction error if the correlation becomes weaker. The correlation coefficient has a declining secular variation, which leads to a weakening trend in predictive power, as well as a 44 year periodicity that may explain why the prediction method did not work well for solar cycle 23. As this finding only emerged twice in the ~100 year period studied, this 44 year periodicity may occur with a degree of uncertainty and may therefore need to be checked in the future. Two quantities, namely a prediction parameter and the prediction index, are proposed to analyze predictive power. Using the above properties, the success probability of a prediction result can be analyzed in advance.
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