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Title:
From the Cover: Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict
Authors:
Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Turco, Richard P.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando R.
Affiliation:
AA(Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, 392 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0392; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Box 951496, 300 La Kretz Hall, 7157 Math Sciences Building, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496; National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000), AB(Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, 392 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0392; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Box 951496, 300 La Kretz Hall, 7157 Math Sciences Building, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496; National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000), AC(Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, 392 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0392; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Box 951496, 300 La Kretz Hall, 7157 Math Sciences Building, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496; National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000), AD(Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, 392 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0392; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Box 951496, 300 La Kretz Hall, 7157 Math Sciences Building, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496; National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000), AE(Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and ; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, 392 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0392; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Box 951496, 300 La Kretz Hall, 7157 Math Sciences Building, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496; National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000)
Publication:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 105, Issue 14, 2008, pp.5307-5312
Publication Date:
04/2008
Category:
Physical Sciences:Environmental Sciences
Origin:
CROSSREF; PNAS
Keywords:
black carbon, geoengineering, nuclear winter, stratospheric ozone, atmospheric chemistry
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.0710058105
Bibliographic Code:
2008PNAS..105.5307M

Abstract

We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25-45% at midlatitudes, and 50-70% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or <220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical "ozone hole." The resulting increases in UV radiation could impact the biota significantly, including serious consequences for human health. The primary cause for the dramatic and persistent ozone depletion is heating of the stratosphere by smoke, which strongly absorbs solar radiation. The smoke-laden air rises to the upper stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow, so that much of the stratosphere is ultimately heated by the localized smoke injections. Higher stratospheric temperatures accelerate catalytic reaction cycles, particularly those of odd-nitrogen, which destroy ozone. In addition, the strong convection created by rising smoke plumes alters the stratospheric circulation, redistributing ozone and the sources of ozone-depleting gases, including N2O and chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone losses predicted here are significantly greater than previous "nuclear winter/UV spring" calculations, which did not adequately represent stratospheric plume rise. Our results point to previously unrecognized mechanisms for stratospheric ozone depletion.
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