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Title:
Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation
Authors:
Parsons, Tom; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.; Barka, Aykut; Dieterich, James H.
Affiliation:
AA(U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA), AB(Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-0032 Japan.), AC(U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA), AD(Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, 80626 Turkey.), AE(U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA)
Publication:
Science, Volume 288, Issue 5466, pp. 661-665 (2000). (Sci Homepage)
Publication Date:
04/2000
Category:
GEOCHEM PHYS
Origin:
SCIENCE
DOI:
10.1126/science.288.5466.661
Bibliographic Code:
2000Sci...288..661P

Abstract

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 +/- 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 +/- 12% during the next decade.
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