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Title:
Estimating maximum expectable magnitude of earthquakes from fault dimensions
Authors:
Wyss, Max
Publication:
Geology, vol. 7, Issue 7, p.336
Publication Date:
07/1979
Origin:
ADS
DOI:
10.1130/0091-7613(1979)7<336:EMEMOE>2.0.CO;2
Bibliographic Code:
1979Geo.....7..336W

Abstract

The evaluation of seismic risk at locations where sensitive man-made structures are planned depends critically on a correct estimate of the maximum expectable earthquake magnitude, M</em>max, in that region. By assuming that the longest fault (or fault unit) with length L</em>max could break in a single earthquake, one estimates M</em>max from L</em>max on the basis of a magnitude versus source-length relation, which is derived empirically. The maximum expectable ground accelerations are then estimated from M</em>max. I propose that a more accurate estimate of M</em>max can be obtained by determining the maximum expected rupture area, A</em>max, and using the magnitude-area relation M</em> = log A</em> + 4.15 (valid for M</em> > 5.6). A</em>max can be obtained from the product of L</em>max times the expected fault width. The latter can probably be estimated more accurately than L</em>max on the basis of tectonic analysis and microearthquakes studies. The M</em>max estimates derived from rupture area</em> give more accurate results than the estimates based on rupture length</em> alone, because narrow faults produce less powerful earthquakes than do wide faults of the same length.
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